- For FY 20-21, total vehicle registrations were down by -30% (below FY12-13 levels). Except Tractors which grew by 16%, all other categories were in red with 2W, 3W, CV and PV falling by -32%, -64%, -49% and -14% respectively and way below FY13 levels (lowest in last 8 years)
- Total vehicle registration for the month of April’21 plummets by -28% MoM. All categories declined with 2W, 3W, PV, Trac and CV falling by -28%, -43%, -25%, -45% and -24% respectively.
- As mentioned in our last Press Release, the 2nd wave of covid has not only created havoc in urban but has also unsettled rural India this time around as demand trend in 1st 9 days of May shows extremely weak consumer sentiment with almost 95% India under lockdown (full as well as partial) except Telangana.
- FADA appeals to all Auto OEMs to handhold their Dealers the way they did during last wave of covid in 2020 and not burden them with high inventory.
- FADA also requests the Central Government to announce a financial package in terms of moratorium and RBI to release guidelines for relaxation of loan re-payment equivalent to number of days of lockdown each state has declared.
10th May’21, Mumbai: The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) today released Monthly Vehicle Registration Data for FY 20-21 as well as April’21.
April’21 Registration: Unlike other months, we can’t represent a YoY comparison since India was under complete lockdown in April 2020 and not a single vehicles could be sold. Hence, all comparisons for this month has been done on MoM basis.
Commenting on how April’21 performed, FADA President, Mr. Vinkesh Gulati said, “India is currently facing one of its toughest times with 2nd wave of covid creating a havoc in everyone’s life. This time, the spread is not only limited to urban markets but has also taken rural India in its grasp.
Auto Registrations for the month of April witnessed double digit fall to the tune of -28% MoM, as most of the Indian states started going under lockdown (partial as well as full) beginning April 5th onwards. The spread started with Maharashtra followed by Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Rajasthan and other Indian States following the suit. Not surprisingly, all categories hence closed the month in red with 2W down by -28%, 3W by -43%, PV by -25%, Tractors by -45% and CV by -24% respectively on a MoM basis.
Unlike last year, the lockdown this time around has been imposed by State Governments and not the Central. Due to this, there has been no relief announcements which has come out till now either by the Center or RBI and Auto OEMs.
FADA humbly requests Auto OEMs (our Principals) to handhold their dealers the way they did last year during the 1st phase of pandemic as situation is very grim in most of the states and Dealer Principals as well as their teams are fighting for their survival from Covid. FADA also requests OEMs to not burden dealers with high billings all the states where lockdown has been announced.
FADA also requests the Government to come out with financial package, the way they did last year. We also request RBI to come out with guidelines/notifications for relaxation of loan re-payment equivalent to the tune of number of days of lockdown each state has announced.”
Near Term Outlook
The 1st 9 days of May has seen extremely lean sales due to lockdown announced by majority of states. Lockdown also means dealership outlets to remain closed thus meaning zero sales. Considering the rising number of cases, one can expect the peak in terms of infections for India on a whole could be at least a fortnight away. Even where, Dealerships are open, the walk-ins have dropped to 30% and customers are delaying their purchase decision.
The just-concluded elections in states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam, movement of migrant workers back to states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar can keep the curve rising. Overall, FADA hence maintains absolute sluggishness for the month of May as most of the states have announced extension of lockdown till the end of the month.
Long Term Outlook
The 2nd wave of covid has not only unsettled urban but also the rural markets this time around. Recovery hence looks to take a longer time when compared to recovery which came after 1st wave.
The only ray of hope lies on Monsoon’s on time arrival which is likely to enter India through the southern coast around June 1. The country’s weather office has also said that India is expected to get average monsoon rains this year, thus raising expectations of higher farm output, which is central to the country’s economy. This will also lead to rural markets recovering faster than urban. Also categories like Tractors and 2-Wheelers will have a rub off effect in terms of recovery.
FADA see’s overall recovery from the lows of FY21 and to reach the highs of FY19 only by FY23.
- Inventory at the end of April’21
- Average inventory for Passenger Vehicles ranges from 15 – 17 days
- Average inventory for Two-Wheeler ranges from 30 – 35 days
Chart showing Vehicle Registration Data
All India Vehicle Registration Data for FY 20-21
Source: FADA Research
All India Vehicle Registration Data for April’21
|CATEGORY||APR’21||APR’19||% Change w.r.t. APR’19||MAR’21||MoM %|
Source: FADA Research
- The above numbers do not have figures from AP, MP, LD & TS as they are not yet on Vahan 4.
- Vehicle Registration Data has been collated as on 08.05.21 in collaboration with Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Government of India and has been gathered from 1,289 out of 1,493 RTOs.
- CV is subdivided in the following manner
- LCV – Light Commercial Vehicle (incl. Passenger & Goods Vehicle)
- MCV – Medium Commercial Vehicle (incl. Passenger & Goods Vehicle)
- HCV – Heavy Commercial Vehicle (incl. Passenger & Goods Vehicle)
- Others – Construction Equipment Vehicles and others