Overall, the S&P 500 rose over 55% and the Nasdaq composite rose over 46% for President Joe Biden’s administration (compared to when the administration ended). Presidency of Biden ranged throughout stock market conditions from the trailing edge of the post-COVID rally in 2021 through to a bear market in 2022 to wild returns of 24% and 28% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. However, the Russell 2000 index, a measure of small-cap equities, only moved 1% or less [hence] among the most unfavorable presidential terms for the index.
This blog explores whether the stock market made waves during recent presidency of Joe Biden, or was overwhelming during Trump’s last regime.
Stock Market Performance Under Biden
The S&P 500’s 55.7% increase during Biden’s presidency ranked seventh among U.S. presidents over the past seven decades. The Nasdaq composite rose 45.9% and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39.4%. But these gains trailed the historical stock-market upswings achieved in the other administrations.
Trump’s Market Legacy
From 2017 to 2021, President Donald Trump’s administration produced some of the most striking market performances, notably with the Nasdaq composite, which increased by 137.6% (most significant for any four-year presidential term in modern market history). The S&P 500 also recorded an impressive 67.3% gain over the course of Trump’s presidency as compared to Biden’s presidency regarding this influential index.
Comparing Election Cycle Gains
When the stock market returns for Election days are considered, there is a second perspective. Over the period between Election Day 2020 and the end of Biden’s term, the S&P 500 added more than 70% (higher than Trump’s 54.7% gain after the 2016 election). Yet, at 111% the Nasdaq that Trump’s stock market saw while Biden did only see 62.9% growth outpaced the average result. On the other hand, Biden outmaneuvered Trump in the Dow, with a 52.1% increase vs a 46.9% increase by Trump.
President Barack Obama’s first term (2009-2013) is notable as the S&P 500 surged by a remarkable 84.4% after the financial crisis aftermath recovery act alone. Obama also produced the best performance on Russell 2000, with a +105.9% increase. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton is mentioned to have seen the Dow surge 110.8% during his first term, which fueled the dot-com bubble.
Both Presidents Biden and Trump left their personalized footprint on the stock market, however, Trump’s presidency enjoyed greater rewards for investors of technology-driven indices, such as the Nasdaq, while, under President Biden’s administration, investors of traditional blue-chip companies, as measured by the S&P 500 and the Dow, experienced more steady growth. Each presidency’s economic context and market dynamics played pivotal roles in shaping these outcomes.
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