Before we provide the stock market outlook for next week, let’s have a quick recap of the week gone by. The week kicked off on the positive note as for the first 3 days of the previous week, SPX ended merely higher (i.e., was up by ~0.55%). However, the following day was somewhat difficult as SPX saw a decline of ~0.8%. This decline was seen after the poorly received 30-year bond auction from the Treasury department.
While traders and investors were having a hard time to digest this piece of news, they were burdened by hawkish commentary from the US Fed Chairman when he delivered speech before International Monetary Fund in Washington. However, on Friday (10th November) overall markets were positive. This brought SPX to close higher by ~1% for the week. As the result, the outlook was somewhat accurate.
Let us now have a quick stock market outlook for next week. In the next starting November 13, the market experts will eye on the stats of the U.S. consumer through Wednesday’s retail sales report. Apart from this, investors and traders will look out for several key quarterly earnings reports from the range of retailers (such as HD, TGT, WMT, etc.).
If you may recall, previous month’s retail sales figures were healthy. Therefore, the traders will continue to assess whether the equity markets will respond in a positive way or in a negative way if the numbers stay strong and healthy.
Given favourable reaction to the October’s weaker-than-anticipated non-farm payrolls report which was released in the starting of the month, investors and traders should expect to see some kind of minor pull back in consumer spending. If we keep that aside, near-term technicals are bullish this week from the trading point of view.
Coming to the economic data points, on November 14, investors will keep an eye on the data regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This should provide hint about the Federal Reserve’s next move about the interest rates. As per the Bloomberg, the probability of the Fed increasing the interest rates at either the December meeting or January meeting presently stands at ~24.3%.
Looking further, Bloomberg suggests that a rate cut can be seen at either the June or July FOMC meeting which will take place in 2024.
Apart from this, the experts will track the US President Joe Biden & China’s President Xi Jinping meeting which will take place in California. This meeting is expected to take place on 15 November 2023 (Wednesday).