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Thailand’s economic growth continues in Q2 but risks ahead

Thailand's economy can increase in Q2

Thailand’s economy could grow at the fastest pace in the last quarter of this year, according to a Reuters poll, as tourism increased due to a slowdown in Covid cases. Reuters polled that tourism and less restrictions as curtsies lifted were two major economic growth factors for Thailand. However, increased cost of living or a slowdown in China also pose many threats to the country’s current economic outlook.

The median forecast estimates that growth for the second quarter of this year is at approximately 3.1% annually, up from 2.2% in the previous quarter.

But each quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) grows a seasonally-adjusted 0.9%. It’s only slightly slower than a preceding quarter 1.1% and economists are predicting an average (median).

There are varying forecasts for how Southeast Asia’s economy will recover from the deadly pandemic. These forecasts range from 0.1% to 1.3%. More data will be released on Aug. 15th, and this uncertainty is highlighted by the forecast variations.

Thailand tourism is so vital to the economy. With that in mind, a faster-than-expected revival should lift the economy overall.

The tourism sector’s heavy reliance on Chinese tourists suggests a while before they can return to pre-pandemic numbers.

Thailand received 1.07 million foreign tourists in July, up from 767,497 the previous month. Thailand’s tourism-reliant economy likely to have improved in the second quarter.

The government estimates that this year will see an increase in international tourist arrivals, which they attribute to a projected 3.3% growth of Thailand’s economy. The Prime Minister has said that the country’s recovery is expected to continue at 4.2%.

But an ongoing COVID-19 situation in China, which still pursues a zero COVID strategy has increased the risk for global recession. That’s along with a slowdown of the world’s second biggest economy.

DBS said that the heightened fears of a global recession in an uncertain environment could act as a drag on Thailand’s economy and pose downside risks to the company’s forecast on growth.

The Thailand economy is expected to grow 3.4% this year and accelerate to 4.1% in 2023 before slowing to 3.5% in 2024. This result was obtained from a Reuters survey conducted recently.

Although the inflation rate has seen a slight decrease, it still remains an issue. Although 7.61% is lower than what was seen in June, it is still very high and is much higher than the target range of 1%-3%.

Standard Chartered’s economist, Tim Leelahaphan, does not foresee a clear decrease in inflation.

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I'm Ved Prakash, Founder & Editor @Newsblare Media, specialised in Business and Finance niches who writes content for reputed publication such as,, Motley Fool Singapore, etc. I'm the contributor of different... news sites that have widened my views on the current happenings in the world.


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