With tensions between Tehran and Israel reaching a boiling point, Iran is facing a severe crisis at home. Supreme Leader Ayatullah Khamenei, 85, is gravely ill, and according to insiders, Mojtaba Khamenei, his second son, has already been secretly designated as his successor. This might critically alter Iran’s political scene at a time of heightened regional instability.
Iran International, a Persian-language outlet associated with opposition groups, claimed that Mojtaba may take the reins even before his father’s death. According to the report, on September 26, Khamenei summoned an extraordinary session of the Assembly of Experts, a council tasked with choosing the supreme leader.
It is said that during the session, the 60-member body was allegedly coerced into approval by Mojataba’s appointment. The body eventually agreed unanimously but reportedly under coercion.
The secrecy surrounding this process stood for weeks, but is now hitting the headlines, and with those headlines comes internal power struggles and public dissent.
Who will take the reins after Supreme Leader Ayatullah Khamenei?
Succession in Iran has been pivotal. When Ayatollah Khomeini died in 1989, minimal resistance ensued with the ascendancy of Ali Khamenei. Crucial to the relatively peaceful transfer was Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a unifying figure who brokered support across most political factional elements. Today, there is no such figure.
That could make life even harder for Mojtaba, whose associates of Khamenei, widely considered Islamists, do not enjoy high public approval ratings.
Add to this cocktail of uncertainty the death, earlier this year, of Ebrahim Raisi, a potential heir. Without an unquestionable and widely accepted successor, succession in Iran may be hard.
The power vacuum comes at a time when Iran is dealing with various regional crises, starting from the standoff with Israel. As the latest attacks greatly augmented security concerns, a change of leadership may affect the way Iran portrays itself on these matters.
The world waits in suspense as Iran negotiates this turbulent period. The implications of leadership change are highly pervasive, both domestically and across West Asia.
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