I’m sure you’ve seen the predictions that artificial intelligence will replace millions of jobs in the near future. Globally, 300 million jobs will be affected by AI, according to Goldman Sachs.
IBM, for instance, announced earlier this year it would cease hiring for certain roles that could be replaced by AI.
The rise of artificial intelligence has been compared with previous periods of technological innovation in a recent report by Morgan Stanley. Its findings are encouraging.
A famous company, Daron Acemoglu has expressed their worries about the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence on the workplace.
In a recent survey, one in five college-educated workers said they were concerned about losing their jobs to technology.
The introduction of Microsoft Excel in the late 1980s accelerated the adoption of spreadsheets, which first appeared in the late 70s.
Technology Adoption History
The technology gained widespread adoption in the 1980s, particularly after Microsoft Excel was introduced in 1987. This led to a decrease in the number of Americans working as bookkeepers and accounting/auditing clerks (from ~2 million in 1987 to just above 1.5 million by 2000). However, there was a notable uptick in employment for accountants/auditors (rising from ~1.3 million in 1987 to ~1.5 million in 2000) and management analysts & financial managers (from ~0.6 million in 1987 to ~1.5 million in 2000).
Source: Morgan Stanley
A decline in one type of job was more than offset by the creation of adjacent jobs.
As with ATMs, which were anticipated to end the job of the bank teller, the ATMs made it cheaper to operate a branch, while the demand for branches increased, creating more jobs for tellers.
Morgan Stanley Concern about AI Jobs
There have been predictions of tremendous job losses during previous periods of technological innovation, but what we have seen is the opposite — increased productivity, lower prices, and new products and services.”
Here’s a reminder that these numbers show how many people are employed. It is very possible for someone to lose their job as a bookkeeper and not be able to retrain or find another job as an accountant or financial manager. In the case of a bookkeeper, the fact that there is growth in professions not available to you is cold comfort.
It is absolutely crucial to help those who face disruption develop new skills, as Morgan Stanley notes.
As a result of GenAI labor disruptions, reskilling could be in high demand for the first time. As a result of GenAI labor disruptions, we believe a significant ramp up in capacity to retrain large numbers of US workers will likely be required.
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