South Africa locked up their spot for the World Test Championship, set to take place in June, after a gripping two-wicket win against Pakistan in Centurion. The second qualification chance remains open with Australia looking most likely to grab that second qualification chance while India and Sri Lanka have slim possibilities of making it to WTC. Here is an analysis of WTC 2023-25 final qualification scenarios for India, Australia, and Sri Lanka.
WTC 2023-25 Final Qualification Scenarios
Australia: At the Poles
Percentage: 61.46%
Remaining matches: 1 vs. India (home), 2 vs. Sri Lanka (away)
Australia’s itinerary is simple. A victory in the final Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Sydney earns them a ticket to the WTC final, regardless of how they fare in Sri Lanka. If they win the last Test in Sydney but fail in both Tests in Sri Lanka, they will still lead at 57.02%, ahead of India at 55.26% at maximum and Sri Lanka at 53.85%.
And another draw at Sydney will also keep them ahead of India. But this may turn out to be a weakness of the team if Sri Lanka successfully sweep their home series against Australia 2-0. If Australia fail to win in Sydney, then they must win at least one game in Sri Lanka for them to remain at the top.
India: A Must-Win in Sydney
Present percentage: 52.78%
Remaining match: 1 vs. Australia (away)
India’s hopes will solely depend on the outcome of the Sydney Test. If they win, they will push their percentage to 55.26% and stand a chance of moving to the second spot if Australia don’t win more than one game in Sri Lanka. In case Australia win only one game from the Sri Lankan series, their percentage would decline to 53.51 and India might sneak in ahead.
But a draw or defeat for India at Sydney eliminates them from WTC final contention. A draw will only place them at 51.75%, lower than Australia, and an all possible chances Sri Lanka has a clean sweep.
Sri Lanka: Long Shot
Present percentage: 45.45%
Remaining matches: 2 against Australia at home
Sri Lanka’s road to the WTC final is steeper. All hope lies with Australia losing the Sydney Test against India, followed by a 2-0 series win by Sri Lanka over the Aussies in their backyard. That will lift Sri Lanka to 53.85%, above both Australia at 53.51% and India at 51.75%.
Any other outcome sends Sri Lanka home. If India beat Australia in Sydney, Sri Lanka’s hopes are gone. Australia winning the series in Sri Lanka also means they will end above their hosts.
The Bigger Picture
South Africa’s qualification has already added excitement to this WTC cycle. Their disciplined campaign ended in a dramatic victory over Pakistan, which took them to the final. The second slot will be played out in Sydney, as the last Test between Australia and India is going to mold the landscape of WTC. Sri Lanka will keep an eye on it, knowing their chances lie in a draw at the SCG and flawless performances at home.
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